A study on social contact rates relevant for the spread of infectious diseases in a Brazilian slum

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0241

Keywords:

Epidemiological survey, POLYMOD, Social contact rate, Cliques

Abstract

Inspired by the POLYMOD study, an epidemiological survey was conducted in June 2021 in one of the most densely populated and socially vulnerable sectors of Belo Horizonte (Brazil). A sample of 1000 individuals allowed us to identify, within a 24-hour period, the rates of social contacts by age groups, the size and frequency of clique in which respondents participated, as well as other associated sociodemographic factors (number of household residents, location of contact, use of public transportation, among others). Data were analyzed in two phases. In the first one, results between two SIR models that simulated an eight-day pandemic process were compared. One included parameters adjusted from observed contact rates, the other operated with parameters adjusted from projected rates for Brazil. In the second phase, by means of a log-lin regression, we modeled the main social determinants of contact rates, using clique density as a proxy variable. The data analysis showed that family size, age, and social circles are the main covariates influencing the formation of cliques. It also demonstrated that compartmentalized epidemiological models, combined with social contact rates, have a better capacity to describe the epidemiological dynamics, providing a better basis for mitigation and control measures for diseases that cause acute respiratory syndromes.

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Author Biographies

Sílvio Segundo Salej Higgins, Department of Sociology, Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte-MG

Sílvio Segundo Salej Higgins holds a BA in Philosophy from Pontificia Universidad Javeriana and an MA in Political Sociology from Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. PhD in Sociology from the University of Paris Dauphine (France) and in Political Sociology from the Federal University of Santa Catarina (Brazil) in the framework of the French-Brazilian Doctoral College - CAPES, Ministry of Education of Brazil and Ministère de l’Éducation National (France). He leads the Interdisciplinary Research Group on Social Network Analysis (GIARS) - UFMG - CNPq Certificate. Associate Professor of Sociology Department, Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) - PQ 2 Productivity Fellow.

Adrian Pablo Hinojosa Luna, Department of Statistics, Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte-MG

Adrian Pablo Hinojosa Luna holds a BA in Mathematics from the Universidad Central del Ecuador, an M.Sc. in Mathematics from the Asociación Instituto Nacional de Matemática Pura e Aplicada, and a Ph.D. in Mathematics from the Asociación Instituto Nacional de Matemática Pura e Aplicada. Adjunct professor IV at the Federal University of Minas Gerais.

Reinaldo Onofre dos Santos, Federal University of Juiz de Fora (UFJF), Juiz de Fora-MG, Brazil

Reinaldo Onofre dos Santos is graduated in Geography (IGC-UFMG), Master and PhD in Demography from Federal University of Minas Gerais (CEDEPLAR-UFMG). Adjunct professor at the Department of Geosciences of the Federal University of Juiz de Fora.

Andreia Maria Pinto Rabelo, Interdisciplinary Group on Social Network Analysis, Federal University of Minas Gerais

Andreia Maria Pinto Rabelo is PhD in Sociology from University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). Graduated in Social Sciences from Fundação Educacional de Divinópolis/UEMG and has a master’s degree in Education, Culture and Social Organizations from the same institution. Participates in the Interdisciplinary Research Group in Social Network Analysis (GIARS-UFMG) and the Research Group Observatory of Innovations, Networks and Organizations (OIRO-UFOP).

Maíra Soalheiro, Department of Statistics, Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte-MG

Maíra Soalheiro has an undergraduate degree in Statistics from the Federal University of Minas Gerais, a master’s degree in Statistics from the Federal University of Minas Gerais). She is a doctoral student in Statistics at the same institution.

Vanessa Cardoso Ferreira , United Nations Population Fund, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil

Vanessa Cardoso Ferreira is PhD in Demography from the Center for Regional Development and Planning (CEDEPLAR) at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). She holds a Master’s degree in Demography and a Bachelor’s degree in Economic Sciences from UFMG.

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Published

2023-08-11

How to Cite

Segundo Salej Higgins, S., Pablo Hinojosa Luna, A., Onofre dos Santos, R., Maria Pinto Rabelo, A., Soalheiro, M., & Cardoso Ferreira , V. (2023). A study on social contact rates relevant for the spread of infectious diseases in a Brazilian slum. Brazilian Journal of Population Studies, 40, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0241

Issue

Vol. 40 (2023)

Section

Original Articles

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