Low fertility and postponement of first birth in Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0080Keywords:
Fertility postponement. First order births. Brazil.Abstract
Brazil is undergoing a process of birth postponement, which has contributed to the reduction of observed fertility. In this context, first births are crucial, insofar as the moment of their occurrence is related to subsequent births and to postponed births’ recovery potential. The objective of this paper is to analyze first-order births, taking into account Brazilian regional heterogeneity. We intend to enrich the debate about the future of fertility in Brazil. Data come from the 1980, 1991, 2000 and 2010 Demographic Censuses and the birth stories reconstructed from them, for the 1980 to 2010 period. Results show the persistence of regional differentials and point to (i) a scenario of postponement of first child in Brazil; and (ii) an increase in the proportion of childless women. If regional differences are reduced, postponement tends to increase and
fertility levels tend to decrease further.
Downloads
References
ABDO, M. P. M. Adiamento e gravidez de risco: associação entre idade materna avançada com baixo peso e prematuridade dos filhos. Dissertação (Mestrado) – Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, 2019.
ALVES, J. E. D.; CAVENAGHI, S. M.; BARROS, L. F. W. A família DINC no Brasil: algumas características sociodemográficas. Rio de Janeiro: Escola Nacional de Ciências Estatísticas, IBGE, 2010. (Textos para discussão, n. 30).
BILLARI, F.; KOHLER, H-P. Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe. Rostok, Germany: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 2002. (Working Paper 2002-040).
BONGAARTS, J.; SOBOTKA, T. A demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility. Population and Development Review, v. 38, n. 1, p. 83-120, 2012.
BONGAARTS, J. Demographic consequences of declining fertility. Science, v. 282, n. 5388, p. 419-420, 1998.
BONGAARTS, J.; FEENEY, G. On the quantum and tempo of fertility. Population and Development Review, v. 24, n. 2, p. 271-291, 1998.
BRASS, W. Methods for estimating fertility and mortality from limited and defective data. Chapel Hill, NC: The North Carolina Center, 1975.
CHO, L.-J.; RETHERFORD, R. D.; CHOE, M. K. The own-children method of fertility estimation. Honolulu, Hawaii: University of Hawaii, 1986.
DAVIS, K.; BLAKE, J. Social structure and fertility: an analytic framework. Economic Development and Cultural Change, v. 4, n. 3, p. 211-235, 1956.
GOLDSTEIN, J. How late can first births be postponed? Some illustrative population-level calculations. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, v. 4, n. 1, p. 153-165, 2006.
GOLDSTEIN, J.; LUTZ, W.; SCHERBOV, S. Long-term population decline in Europe: the relative importance of tempo effects and generational length. Population and Development Review, v. 29, n. 4, p. 699-707, 2003.
GOLDSTEIN, J. R.; SOBOTKA, T.; JASILIONIENE, A. The end of lowest-low fertility? Population and Development Review, v. 35, n. 4, p. 663-700, 2009.
KOHLER, H.-P.; ORTEGA, J. A. Tempo-adjusted period parity progression measures, fertility postponement and completed cohort fertility. Demographic Research, v. 6, n. 6, p. 91-144, 2002.
LEOCÁDIO, V. A. Childlessness no Brasil: a contribuição das mudanças sociodemográficas para a tendência de zero filho. Dissertação (Mestrado) – Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, 2018.
LERIDON, H. Can assisted reproduction technology compensate for the natural decline in fertility with age? A model assessment. Human Reproduction, v. 19, n. 7, p. 1548-1553, 2004.
LESTHAEGHE, R. The second demographic transition: a concise overview of its development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 111, n. 51, p. 18112-18115, 2014.
LUTZ, W.; SKIRBEKK, V.; TESTA, M. R. The low-fertility trap hypothesis: forces that may lead to further postponement and fewer births in Europe. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, v. 4, n. 1, p. 167-192, 2006.
MENEGHIM, J. C. A.; OLIVEIRA, M. C. F. A. Análise da relação entre ausência de filhos e características socioeconômicas e demográficas para mulheres de 50 a 59 anos no período de 1980 a 2010 no Brasil. In: ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ESTUDOS POPULACIONAIS, 20., 2016, Foz do Iguaçu/PR. Anais [...]. Belo Horizonte: Abep, 2016.
MENEGHIM, J. C. A. Mulheres sem filhos no Brasil: uma análise de características socioeconômicas e demográficas, razões e repercussões. Tese (Doutorado) – Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, 2018.
MIRANDA-RIBEIRO, A. Reconstrução de histórias de nascimentos a partir de dados censitários: aspectos teóricos e evidências empíricas. Tese (Doutorado) – Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, 2007.
MIRANDA-RIBEIRO, A.; RIOS-NETO, E. L. G.; CARVALHO, J. A. M. Reconstrução de histórias de nascimentos a partir de dados censitários: uma análise comparativa de duas metodologias. Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População, Rio de Janeiro, v. 26, n. 1, p. 21-35, 2009.
MIRANDA-RIBEIRO, A.; GARCIA, R. A. Transition or transitions? Analyzing the fertility decline in Brazil in the light of educational levels. Revista Latinoamericana de Población, v. 7, n. 13, p. 91-106, 2013.
MIRANDA-RIBEIRO, A.; RIOS-NETO, E. L. G.; ORTEGA, J. A. Efeito tempo, quantum e efeito parturição na transição da fecundidade no Brasil: aplicação do modelo de Kohler & Ortega. In: ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ESTUDOS POPULACIONAIS, 15., 2006, Caxambu/MG. Anais [...]. Caxambu: Abep, 2006.
MIRANDA-RIBEIRO, A.; RIOS-NETO, E. L. G.; GARCIA, R. A. Anticipación y postergación de los nacimientos en la transición de la fecundidad en Brasil. Notas de Población (Impresa), v. 103, p. 29-43, 2016.
MYRSKYLÄ, M.; KOHLER, H.-P.; BILLARI, F. C. Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature, v. 460, p. 741-743, 2009.
ORTEGA, J. A.; KOHLER, H.-P. Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods. Rostock, Germany: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 2002. (Working Paper 2002-001).
RIOS-NETO, E. L. G.; MIRANDA-RIBEIRO, A.; MIRANDA-RIBEIRO, P. Fertility differentials by education in Brazil: from the conclusion of fertility to the onset of postponement transition. Population and Development Review, v. 44, n. 3, p. 489-517, 2018.
RYDER, N. B. Problems of trend determination during a transition in fertility. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, v. 34, n. 1, p. 5-21, 1956.
SIMÃO, A. B.; MIRANDA-RIBEIRO, P.; CAETANO, A. J.; CÉSAR, C. C. Comparando as idades à primeira relação sexual, à primeira união e ao nascimento do primeiro filho de duas coortes de mulheres brancas e negras em Belo Horizonte: evidências quantitativas. Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População, v. 23, n. 1, p. 151-166, 2006.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Papers published in Rebep are original and protected under the Creative Commons attribution-type license (CC-BY). This license allows you to reuse publications in whole or in part for any purpose, free of charge, even for commercial purposes. Any person or institution can copy, distribute or reuse the content, as long as the author and the original source are properly mentioned.
