Pérdida de ingresos e intenciones de fecundidad durante la pandemia de COVID-19 en Brasil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0267Palabras clave:
COVID-19, Impactos socioeconómicos, Fecundidad, Comportamientos reproductivos, Encuesta probabilísticaResumen
El estudio tiene como objetivo examinar cómo la pérdida de ingresos inducida por la pandemia moldeó las intenciones de fecundidad al comienzo de la pandemia de COVID-19, examinando las diferencias en esta asociación entre madres y no madres, y si los efectos son similares para las intenciones de posponer versus renunciar al embarazo. La investigación emplea un enfoque mixto que combina datos de encuestas probabilísticas a nivel poblacional de 1524 mujeres fértiles con parejas, de entre 18 y 34 años, con observaciones cualitativas obtenidas de 56 entrevistas semiestructuradas con mujeres de entre 18 y 39 años en Pernambuco, Brasil. Se utilizaron modelos de regresión multinomial para distinguir entre intenciones de posponer, renunciar y quedar embarazadas en seis meses, explorando asociaciones con la pérdida de ingresos inducida por la pandemia antes de la entrevista, maternidad y paridad. Encontramos que la mayoría de las mujeres tenían la intención de evitar el embarazo al inicio de la pandemia, con diferencias importantes entre las intenciones de posponer versus las de renunciar entre madres y no madres. Además, la pérdida de ingresos consecuencia de la pandemia y la maternidad/paridad interactuaron para definir las intenciones de fecundidad. Mientras que la pérdida de ingresos no afectó a las no madres, las madres tenían intenciones diferentes según la pérdida de ingresos, siendo aquellas que la experimentaron más propensas a posponer o renunciar a un embarazo, y las madres de dos o más hijos más propensas a renunciar por completo a un embarazo. El análisis cualitativo corroboró estos patrones y proporcionó una sensibilidad más sutil de las intenciones de fecundidad a los impactos de ingresos inducidos por la pandemia.
Descargas
Citas
AASSVE, A.; LE MOGLIE, M.; MENCARINI, L. Trust and fertility in uncertain times. Population Studies, v. 75, n. 1, p. 19-36, Jan. 2021.
ARPINO, B.; LUPPI, F.; ROSINA, A. Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability. SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science, 2021.
ATTRIDE-STIRLING, J. Thematic networks: an analytic tool for qualitative research. Qualitative Research, v. 1, n. 3, p. 385-405, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1177/146879410100100307
BERNARDI, L.; MYNARSKA, M.; ROSSIER, C. Uncertain, changing and situated fertility intentions: a qualitative analysis. In: PHILIPO, D.; LIEFBROER, A. C.; KLOBAS, J. E. (Ed.). Reproductive decision-making in a macro-micro perspective. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2014. p. 113-139.
BERRINGTON, A. et al. Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of COVID-19. ESRC Centre for Population Change, 26 Mar. 2021. Available at: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/448062/. Access on: 14 Mar. 2022.
BHROLCHÁIN, M. N.; BEAUJOUAN, É. How real are reproductive goals? Uncertainty and the construction of fertility preferences. ESRC Centre for Population Change, Dec. 2015. (Working Paper, 73). Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287640917_How_real_are_reproductive_goals_Uncertainty_and_the_construction_of_fertility_preferences
BRASIL. Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde e Ambiente. Situação epidemiológica da síndrome congênita associada à infecção pelo vírus Zika: Brasil, 2015 a 2023, até a SE31. Brasília, DF, 2023. (Boletim Epidemiológico, v.54, n. 16). Available at: https://www.gov.br/saude/pt-br/centrais-de-conteudo/publicacoes/boletins/epidemiologicos/edicoes/2023/boletim-epidemiologico-volume-54-no-16/view Access on: 22 May 2024.
BUBER-ENNSER, I.; SETZ, I.; RIEDERER, B. Not even a pandemic makes them change their family plans: the impact of COVID-19 on fertility intentions in Austria. Population and Development Review, v. 50, S1, p. 277-302, Jul. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12555
CASTRO, M. C. et al. Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 115, n. 24, p. 6177-6182, 12 Jun. 2018.
CASTRO, M. C. et al. Spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 spread in Brazil. Science, n. 372, p. 821-826, 2021a.
CASTRO, M. C. et al. Reduction in life expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19. Nature Medicine, v. 27, p. 1629-1635, 2021b. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01437-z
CHEN, T.; HOU, P.; WU, T.; YANG, J. The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility intentions of women with childbearing age in China. Behav Sci, 12, 335, 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/bs12090335 PMID: 36135139; PMCID: PMC9495656.
CHU, K.; ZHU, R.; ZHANG, Y.; PANG, W.; FENG, X.; WANG, X.; WU, C.; SUN, N.; LI, W. Fertility intention among Chinese reproductive couples during the COVID-19 outbreak: a cross-sectional study. Frontiers in Public Health, v. 10, article 903183, Jun. 2022. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.903183 PMID: 35801249; PMCID: PMC9253424.
COFFEY, A. J.; ATKINSON, P. A. Making sense of qualitative data: complementary research strategies. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1996.
CORBIN, J. M.; STRAUSS, A. Grounded theory research: procedures, canons, and evaluative criteria. Qualitative Sociology, v. 13, n. 1, p. 3-21, Mar. 1990.
COUTINHO, R. Z. et al. Considerações sobre a pandemia de COVID-19 e seus efeitos sobre a fecundidade e a saúde sexual e reprodutiva das brasileiras. Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População, v. 37, e0130, 2020.
CRESWELL, J. W.; POTH, C. N. Qualitative inquiry and research design: choosing among five approaches. [s.l.]: SAGE Publications, 2016.
DENTON, F. T.; SPENCER, B. G. In living memory: the demographic dynamics of event recollection in a stable population. Population and Development Review, v. 47, n. 1, p. 219-235, March 2021. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12388
DINIZ, C. S. G.; CABRAL, C. da S. Reproductive health and rights, and public policies in Brazil: revisiting challenges during COVID-19 pandemics. Global Public Health, v. 17, n. 11, p. 3175-3188, Nov. 2022.
GUETTO, R.; BAZZANI, G.; VIGNOLI, D. Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, v. 20, p. 223-260, 2022.
HAYFORD, S. R.; AGADJANIAN, V. Spacing, stopping, or postponing? Fertility desires in a Sub-Saharan setting. Demography, v. 56, n. 2, p. 573-594, Jan. 2019.
IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde 2019. Sistema IBGE de Recuperação Automática - SIDRA. 2022. Available at: https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/pesquisa/pns Access on: 15 Feb. 2022
JOHNS HOPKINS CORONAVIRUS RESOURCE CENTER. Brazil - COVID-19 overview. 2021. Available at: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/brazil Access on: 11 Jun. 2024
JONES, R.; K. Are uncertain fertility intentions a temporary or long-term outlook? Findings from a panel study. Women's Health Issues, v. 27, n. 1, p. 21-28, 2017.
KAHN, L. G. et al. Factors associated with changes in pregnancy intention among women who were mothers of young children in New York City following the COVID-19 outbreak. JAMA Network Open, v. 4, n. 9, e2124273, Sep. 2021.
KITANO, T. et al. The differential impact of pediatric COVID-19 between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review of fatality and ICU admission in children worldwide. PLoS One, v. 16, n. 1, e0246326, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0246326
KUROWSKA, A.; MATYSIAK, A.; OSIEWALSKA, B. Working from home during COVID-19 pandemic and changes to fertility intentions among parents. European Journal of Population, v. 39, n. 1, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-023-09678-z
KWAN, D. E.; CHOI, S. Time at home, fertility intention and housework change. Journal of Asian Sociology, v. 51, n. 4, p. 379-406, 2022. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27194067
LAPPEGÅRD, T. et al. The impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions in Norway. Journal of Marriage and Family, v. 84, n. 2, p. 476-493, 2022.
LE, H. H. et al. The burden of unintended pregnancies in Brazil: a social and public health system cost analysis. International Journal of Women’s Health, v. 6, p. 663-670, Jul. 2014.
LEOCADIO, V.; VERONA, A. P.; WAJNMAN, S. Intenções de fecundidade: uma revisão da literatura acerca da variável em países de renda alta e no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População, v. 40, e0238, 2023. https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0238
LIN, T. K. et al. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic security and pregnancy intentions among people at risk of pregnancy. Contraception, v. 103, n. 6, p. 380-385, Jun. 2021.
LINDBERG, L. D. et al. The continuing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States: findings from the 2021 Guttmacher Survey of Reproductive Health Experiences. New York: Guttmacher Institute, Dec. 2021. Available at: https://www.guttmacher.org/report/continuing-impacts-COVID-19-pandemic-findings-2021-guttmacher-survey-reproductive-health
LUPPI, F.; ARPINO, B.; ROSINA, A. The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Demographic Research, v. 43, p. 1399-1412, Dec. 2020.
MALICKA, I.; MYNARSKA, M.; ŚWIDERSKA, J. Perceived consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and childbearing intentions in Poland. Journal of Family Research, v. 33, n. 3, p. 674-702, Dec. 2021.
MARTELETO, L. J. et al. Live births and fertility amid the Zika epidemic in Brazil. Demography, v. 57, n. 3, p. 843-872, Jun. 2020.
MARTELETO, L. J. et al. Fertility intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of individual- and municipality-level determinants. Population and Development Review, v. 50, S1, p. 213-242, May 2023a. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12561
MARTELETO, L. J.; DONDERO, M.; KOEPP, A. Scars from a previous epidemic: social proximity to Zika and fertility intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World, v. 9, 2023b https://doi.org/10.1177/23780231231184767
MARTELETO, L. J.; DONDERO, M.; SERENO, L. G. F.; COUTINHO, R. Z. Income loss and intention to avoid pregnancy during the COVID-19 pandemic. In: ANNUAL MEETING POPULATION ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA. Proceedings […]. Atlanta, Georgia: Population Association of America, 2022.
MOOI-RECI, I.; TRONG-ANH, T.; VERA-TOSCANO, E.; WOODEN, M. The impact of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility intentions. Economics & Human Biology, v. 48, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101214
MORGAN, S. P. Should fertility intentions inform fertility forecasts? In: US CENSUS BUREAU CONFERENCE: THE DIRECTION OF FERTILITY IN THE UNITED STATES. Proceedings […]. Washington, DC: US Census Bureau, 2001.
NAYA, C. H.; SAXBE, D. E.; DUNTON, G. F. Early effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility preferences in the United States: an exploratory study. Fertility and Sterility, v. 116, n. 4, p. 1128-1138, Oct. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2021.05.092
NOVELLI, M. et al. Fertility intentions in times of rising economic uncertainty: evidence from Italy from a gender perspective. Social Indicators Research, v. 154, n. 1, p. 257-284, Feb. 2021.
OLIVEIRA, J. F. et al. Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals in Bahia, Brazil. Nature Communications, v. 12, n. 1, p. 333, Jan. 2021.
RANGEL, M. A.; NOBLES, J.; HAMOUDI, A. Brazil’s missing infants: Zika risk changes reproductive behavior. Demography, v. 57, n. 5, p. 1647-1680, Oct. 2020.
RAYBOULD, A.; MYNARSKA, M.; SEAR, R. "The future is unstable": exploring changing fertility intentions in the United Kingdom during the COVID-19 pandemic. Perspective on Sexual and Reproductive Health, v. 55, n. 4, p. 229-238, Dec. 2023. https://doi.org/10.1111/psrh.12248
ROTKIRCH, A. The wish for a child. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, v. 18, p. 49-61, 2020.
SENNOTT, C.; YEATMAN, S. Conceptualizing childbearing ambivalence: a social and dynamic perspective. Journal of Marriage and Family, v. 80, n. 4, p. 888-901, 2018.
SILVA, G. A. e; JARDIM, B. C.; LOTUFO, P. A. Mortalidade por COVID-19 padronizada por idade nas capitais das diferentes regiões do Brasil. Cadernos de Saúde Pública, v. 37, n. 6, e00039221, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-311X00039221
SOBOTKA, T.; SKIRBEKK, V.; PHILIPOV, D. Economic recession and fertility in the developed world. Population and Development Review, v. 37, n. 2, p. 267-306, 2011.
SOUZA, A. S. R.; AMORIM, M. M. R. Mortalidade materna pela COVID-19 no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Saúde Materno Infantil, v. 21, suppl. 1, fev. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9304202100s100014
TAN, P. L.; RYAN, J.; LIM-SOH, J. Epidemics and fertility change: responses to Zika and COVID-19 in Singapore. Asian Population Studies, 2021. Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3919334 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3919334
THEME-FILHA, M. M. et al. Factors associated with unintended pregnancy in Brazil: cross-sectional results from the Birth in Brazil National Survey, 2011/2012. Reproductive Health, v. 13, suppl. 1, 2016.
TRINITAPOLI, J.; YEATMAN, S. The flexibility of fertility preferences in a context of uncertainty. Population and Development Review, v. 44, n. 1, p. 87-116, 2018.
WEISS, R. S. Learning from strangers: the art and method of qualitative interview studies. New York, NY: Free Press, 1994.
WHO. WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. Available at: https://data.who.int/dashboards/COVID19/cases
WORLDOMETER. Available at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/#graph-cases-daily Access: 22 May 2024.
YEATMAN, S.; TRINITAPOLI, J.; GARVER, S. The enduring case for fertility desires. Demography, v. 57, n. 6, p. 2047-2056, Oct. 2020.
ZHOU, M.; GUO, W. Sooner, later, or never: changing fertility intentions due to COVID-19 in China’s COVID-19 epicentre. Population Studies, v. 77, n. 1, p. 123-140, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2134579
ZHU, C.; WU, J.; LIANG, Y.; YAN, L.; HE, C.; CHEN, L.; ZHANG, J. Fertility intentions among couples in Shanghai under COVID-19: a cross-sectional study. International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics, v. 151, n. 3, p. 399-406, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijgo.13366
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2024 Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
Los artículos publicados en Rebep son originales y están protegidos bajo la licencia de tipo atribución Creative Commons (CC-BY). Esta licencia le permite reutilizar las publicaciones en su totalidad o en parte para cualquier propósito, de forma gratuita, incluso con fines comerciales. Cualquier persona o institución puede copiar, distribuir o reutilizar el contenido, siempre que se mencione debidamente el autor y la fuente original.
