Indigenous population fertility trends according to the Brazilian Demographic Censuses from 1991 to 2010

Abstract

Fertility of the self-declared indigenous women is analyzed based on Brazilian censuses from 1991 to 2010. Initially, as an approximation to the limitation that the quality of data may impose, population growth captured by these data sources is analyzed. There has been a bias on the self-declaration for 2000, more pronounced for the urban population, which may compromise the comparison with the 2010 data. In any case, this does not invalidate the analyses on fertility trends. Effectively, indigenous population fertility is decreasing even among the rural population living on the formal demarcation Indian lands. Also, urban indigenous fertility is highly differentiated from the rural. In this context, and adding the probable bias that might have contaminated the estimates in 2000, the need for more investment in the study of this population is critical to answer, for instance who are the urban indigenous population captured in the censuses. Estimates of fertility according to birth order and parity indicate sharp fertility declines in the near future. Fertility of young indigenous women, without much differentiation at urban or rural places of residence, remains at very high levels compared to contemporary populations. This analysis calls for multidisciplinary studies to better understand the reproductive process of the Brazilian indigenous population.