LEAST SQUARES FITTING OF A BETA DISTRIBUTION TO AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES
Abstract
The paper shows at first that using the method of moments to estimate the parameters of a Beta function to fit age specific fertility rates is inadequate. A solution by means of the least squares method is proposed, under the constraint that the implied Total Fertility Rate should equal the observed value. The iterative solution by means of the Newton-Raphson method turns out to be extremely efficient, converging in only a few steps. Im addition, some characteristics of the Beta distribution related to the problem are obtained. The results, applied to 1980 data from the State of São Paulo, clearly show a better global fit,especially in the area around the peak of the fertility curve.Downloads
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