RECENT FERTILITY TRENDS IN THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO

Abstract

Fertility trends in the State of São Paulo in the period from 1960 to 1980 are anlyzed, based on Census and Civil Registration data. The TFR shows a declining trend, falling from 4.69 in 1960 to 3.40 in 1980. However, the latter value has been constant since 1975. This does not contradict the decline registered during the past 20 years, for the slow-down in 1980 might be a response to the abrupt decline observed between 1970 and 1975. This observation is suported by longitudinal observation of the cohorts of women in the child bearing ages between 1960 and 1980. The stability of the 1975-80 period is explained by an increase in the order of 10% of the native population of the State, an increase of the proportion of migrants, and an improvement of mortality levels, favoring women in the reproductive ages. Taking the socio-economic conjuncture of the State and the birth registration data of the first years of the 1980 decade as a reference, it is expected that the fertility decline will continue.