DEMOGRAPHY AND CONJUNCTURE: METHODOLOGICAL REFLECTIONS

Abstract

This essay treats the methodo1ogical difficulties of the attempt to understand the demographic consequences of the economic crisis in Brazil, since the end of 1980. Three points are emphasized: (1) the economic determinism which permeates this discussion; (2) limits of available analytic techniques, which were developed precisely to abstract from short-range phenomena; and (3) the absence of re1evant and up-to-date data. The paper concludes with a warning as to the need for simultaneous ana1ysis of short and long-range demographic dynamics. Theoretical and methodological efforts at understanding the Brazi1ian demographic transition must include a concern with short-range phenomena, to distinguish them from secular transformations, and to evaluate their importance in retarding, accelerating, or redirecting these transformations.