Title not available in English.

Abstract

This paper applies Lee and Carter´s method for forecasting mortality for both males and females in Brazil. The method combines a demographic model with a time series method. First, I adjust a matrix of logarithms of the age-specifics mortality rates for previous periods through a demographic model. The results yields two constant age-specific vectors and one index level, time variant vector. Second, I model the mortality level indexes as a time series and make a projection and plug the mortality level indexes into the original demographic model. Finally, I obtain the central death rates.