Effects of migration on long-term population growth in the provinces of Cuba

Abstract

Cuba has shown very low fertility levels, even below replacement level, in addition to significant negative net migration flows. In the country’s interior there is intense population mobility, characterized by different migration patterns from one province to another. In this article the effects of both internal and international migration flows on long-term population growth in Cuba and in its provinces are discussed. We estimate reproduction and population growth measures using conventional demographic methods, together with the methodology developed by Preston and Wang (2007), based on variable-r methods. Given current demographic patterns in the majority of Cuban provinces, and when migration effects are accounted for, our analysis shows significant negative consequences for the future maintenance of the Cuban population.