AIDS: social vulnerability and the evolution of the epidemic in Northeastern and Southeastern Brazil

Abstract

The Brazilian AIDS epidemic consists of numerous regional sub-epidemics that affect almost all Brazilian municipalities. The profile of the epidemic has undergone abroad changes in terms of the means of transmission and the risk groups. The disease progressively affects the most vulnerable members of the population. In this paper, population groups were identified in the Northeast and Southeast by levels of social vulnerability to AIDS, by means of the Grade of Membership method. The spatial patterns of temporal expansion of AIDS are also analyzed. The results point to lower vulnerability in the Southeast where there are pockets of less vulnerability, especially in large cities. In the Northeast a great expansion of AIDS was seen and the risk of infection has increased there. In the absence of strategies for risk reduction and social change, those areas could become important foci of the AIDS epidemic in the future.