Efeitos de idade, período e coorte no consumo de energia elétrica dos domicílios brasileiros no século XXI: uma análise sob a perspectiva da relação população-consumo-ambiente

Abstract

Consumption is a key mediator of the population–environment nexus, especially under conditions of consumer society dynamics and the global climate emergency. Understanding the historical interaction between consumption and population processes requires attention to social, economic, behavioral, and ethical dimensions. To capture these temporal dynamics, this study applies an Age–Period–Cohort (APC) framework. Household electricity consumption is a useful proxy for family lifestyles and, more broadly, population-level consumption patterns. Using data from Brazil’s Household Budget Survey (Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares—POF), the study examines age, period, and cohort effects on per capita household electricity consumption. To address the APC identification problem, we estimate linear regression models under alternative constraint specifications and a two-level hierarchical mixed-effects model. Results indicate higher consumption in households headed by older individuals and increases across the study periods. Regarding cohort effects, cohorts born after 1960 show a decline in energy consumption intensity relative to earlier cohorts. These findings underscore the distinct contributions of the three temporal dimensions, improve understanding of the evolution of household energy consumption behavior in Brazil, and provide evidence to inform environmental public policies and energy planning.