AGE STRUCTURE, WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY, AND FORMAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMIARID

AN ALTERNATIVE REGIONAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

This article analyzes the evolution of the age structure, as well as describes the trajectory and the utilization of the demographic window, using the Formal Employment Index (IEF) as a proxy, comparing the region of the Northern Semiarid (SemSet) with the Southern Semiarid (SemMer) and the rest of the country, over the period from 1970 to 2022. Despite distinct historical patterns, it was found that the age structure of the three regions converged. The window of opportunity in the SemSet emerged around 2005, approximately fifteen years after it had been characterized outside the semiarid region. The evolution of the IEF suggested: i) that the "bonus" materialized moderately until 2014, when it began to be wasted; ii) persistence of the interregional gap: in 2000, the IEF outside the semiarid region was three times higher than that observed in the SemSet (8.79% vs. 26.46%). In 2021, although smaller, the gap remained (17.11% vs. 37.81%). Thus, the results do not reject the hypothesis that the relationship between demographic and economic dynamics varies with time, place, and circumstances and, therefore, does not allow generalizations, but should be studied at different scales.