The business cycle: a piece in the puzzle of youth Not in Education, Employment or Training in Latin America

Authors

  • Pablo Gluzmann Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP). https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6570-383X
  • Leopoldo Tornarolli Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP). https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7504-6853
  • Cecilia Velazquez Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP, Argentina). Centro de Estudios de Población (CENEP, Argentina). Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (CINVE, Uruguay). https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5226-410X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0312

Keywords:

Youth, NEET, Business cycle, Latin America

Abstract

One in five young people in Latin America is Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET), with the rate for women almost double that of men. Similarly, one in four young people classified as NEET is part of the economically active population because he or she is looking for a job. This article aims to analyze the role of the business cycle in the proportion of NEET youth in the region by estimating fixed-effects econometric models using harmonized survey data from 12 countries for the period 2005-2022.

The results suggest that the share of NEET youth follows a countercyclical pattern: a 10% increase in the cyclical component of the product is associated with a decrease in the share of NEET youth of about two percentage points. In addition, there is evidence of a “hard core” of NEET youth who face significant barriers to entering or remaining in education or the labour market, even during economic expansions.  

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Author Biographies

Pablo Gluzmann, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP).

Pablo Gluzmann is a researcher at the National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET) and at the Center for Distributive, Labor, and Social Studies (CEDLAS) at the National University of La Plata (UNLP). He holds a Bachelor's, Master's, and Ph.D. in Economics from UNLP, where he also serves as a researcher and Associate Professor. Gluzmann is director of Labor Database for Latin America and The Caribbean Project (LABLAC). His research focuses on inequality, poverty, labor markets, and macroeconomics.

Leopoldo Tornarolli, Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP).

Leopoldo Tornarolli is a senior researcher at the Center for Distributive, Labor, and Social Studies (CEDLAS) at the National University of La Plata (UNLP). He holds a Master's degree in Economics from UNLP, where he also serves as a researcher and professor. Tornarolli is director of Socioeconomic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean Project (SEDLAC). His research focuses on poverty, income distribution, and labor markets.

Cecilia Velazquez , Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP, Argentina). Centro de Estudios de Población (CENEP, Argentina). Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (CINVE, Uruguay).

Cecilia Velázquez is a researcher at the Center for Distributive, Labor, and Social Studies (CEDLAS) at the National University of La Plata (UNLP) and the Center for Population Studies (CENEP) in Argentina, as well as an associate researcher at the Center for Economic Research (CINVE) in Uruguay. She holds a Ph.D. and a Master's degree in Economics from UNLP (Argentina) and a Bachelor's degree in Economics from the University of the Republic (UDELAR, Uruguay). She serves as a researcher and professor at UNLP. Her research focuses on impact evaluation of public policies and demographic issues.

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Published

2025-12-22

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Gluzmann, P., Tornarolli, L., & Velazquez , C. (2025). The business cycle: a piece in the puzzle of youth Not in Education, Employment or Training in Latin America. Brazilian Journal of Population Studies, 42. https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0312

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Vol. 42 (2025)

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