New issues in demographic analysis: the case of Brazil

Abstract

This article begins with a review of the three components of demography, stressing the decline in fertility, with the possibility of the country’s reaching a level of below replacement fertility. Studies on new trends in Brazilian emigration are considered relevant for future research. The demography of compositional effects is discussed in terms of an exercise with fertility differentials according to the mothers´ education. The exercise shows that the historical improvement in mothers´ education has offset the possible adverse effects of high fertility among mothers with low levels of education. The demographic dividend is discussed both conceptually and empirically, and directions for future studies are indicated. Finally, the article presents a conceptual discussion on intergenerational transfers, with emphasis on public expenditures and social policy. New studies being developed on this topic are also mentioned.