Potential loss in years of life arising from COVID-19 in Brazilian regions: evaluation of the six first months of pandemic
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0182Keywords:
Mortality, COVID-19, Single decremented life table, Logistic modelAbstract
This research note estimates the impact of deaths by Covid-19 on life expectancy in Brazil and the Regions for the first six months of 2020. Based on data from Datasus and the decreasing life tables, it was estimated that deaths by Covid-19 that occurred until August 18, 2020 had a statistically negative impact on life expectancy at birth, both male (-1.05 years) and female (-0.85 years). In regional terms, the greatest loss in years of life is estimated in the North (-1.65 years for men and -1.48 years for women), while in the South it was -0.5 year for men and -0.36 for women. The results of the logistic model for the country show that Covid-19 mortality tends to be higher among males, blacks, people with low education level and people over 65 years old. Comorbidities increase the chance of death, especially liver disease and chronic kidney disease. Such analyzes were further disaggregated by large Brazilian regions.
Downloads
References
CHIANG, C. L. The life table and its applications. Malabar, FL: Krieger, 1984.
DEVLEESSCHAUWER, B.; MACDONALD, S. A.; SPEYBROECH, N.; WIPER, G. M. A. Valuing the years of life lost due to COVID-19: the differences and pitfalls. International Journal of Public Health, v. 65, n. 6, p. 719-720, 2020.
IBGE – Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Indicadores sociais 2018: tabulações especiais sobre as condições de vida da população brasileira. Notas técnicas. Rio de Janeiro, 2020.
KEYFITZ, N. Introduction to the mathematics of population. London: Addison-Wesley Publ., 1968.
LIMA, E. E. C.; GAYAWAN, E.; BAPTISTA, E. A.; QUEIROZ, B. L. Spatial pattern of COVID-19 deaths and infections in small areas of Brazil. PloS One, v. 16, n. 2, e0246808, 2021.
LIMA, E. E. C.; GONZAGA, M. R.; QUEIROZ, B. L.; FREIRE, F. H. M. de A.; VILELA, E. de A. Como medir o impacto da Covid-19 na mortalidade? Uma análise do excesso de mortalidade geral. In: GONZAGA, M. R.; OJIMA, R.; LIMA, L. C. (org.). A pandemia em perspectiva regional: produções do Observatório do Nordeste para análise sociodemográfica da Covid-19. Mossoró, RN: EDUERN, 2020. Disponível em: https://demografiaufrn.net/2021/04/09/livro-onas2020/
MARTEL, L. Methods for constructing life tables for Canada, provinces and territories. Statistics Canada, 2017.
MITRA, A. K. et al. Potential years of life lost due to COVID-19 in the United States, Italy, and Germany: an old formula with newer ideas. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, v. 17, n. 12, p. 4392, 2020.
NOYMER, A. At the population level, there will be four types of COVID-19 mortality. 2021. Disponível em: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1241620288825167874.html Acesso em: 2 jul. 2021.
NORONHA, K. V. M. de S.; GUEDES, G. R.; TURRA, C. M.; ANDRADE, M. V. Pandemia por Covid-19 no Brasil: análise da demanda e da oferta de leitos hospitalares e equipamentos de ventilação assistida segundo diferentes cenários. Cadernos de Saúde Pública, v. 36, e00115320, 2020.
PRADO, M. F.; BOZZA, F. A. Analysis of COVID-19 under-reporting in Brazil. Revista Brasileira de Terapia Intensiva, São Paulo, v. 32, n. 2, p. 224-228, jun. 2020. Disponível em: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-507X2020000200224&lng=en&nrm=iso. Acesso em: 20 fev. 2021.
PRESTON, S.; HEUVELINE, P.; GUILLOT, M. Demography: measuring and modeling population processes. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishers, 2001.
QUAST, T. et al. Years of life lost associated with COVID-19 deaths in the United States. Journal of Public Health, Oxford, England, 2020.
LAU, L. S.; SAMARI, G.; MORESKY, R. T.; CASEY, S. E. COVID-19 in humanitarian settings and lessons learned from past epidemics. Nature Medicine, v. 26, n. 5, p. 647-648, 2020.
YAN, L. et al. An interpretable mortality prediction model for COVID-19 patients. Nature Machine Intelligence, v. 2, p. 283-288, 2020.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Papers published in Rebep are original and protected under the Creative Commons attribution-type license (CC-BY). This license allows you to reuse publications in whole or in part for any purpose, free of charge, even for commercial purposes. Any person or institution can copy, distribute or reuse the content, as long as the author and the original source are properly mentioned.
