Demographic transition and post-transition population dynamics: a review of micro and macro economic models and interactions

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0323

Palavras-chave:

Fertility, Demographic transition, Child quality, Extended margin, Intensive margin, Economic growth model, Unified growth theory, Human capital, Technological progress

Resumo

This literature review contrasts microeconomic fertility models during the demographic transition and post-transitional periods, evaluating their implications for macroeconomic growth models. While microeconomic fertility models stress the trade-off between child quality and quantity during the demographic transition, the extensive and intensive margin fertility model applies to the post-transition period, with implications for childlessness and the postponement of childbearing. The impact of micro decisions on economic growth is better documented during the demographic transition compared to the post-transition period. The post-transition micro models have not yet led to models and evidence of sharp technological progress. At the macro level, low or negative population growth during the post-transition period may stall economic growth due to the population size effect.

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Biografia do Autor

Eduardo L.G. Rios-Neto, Professor Visitante - Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto - UFOP

Professor Visitante de economia no Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia Aplicada (PPEA) da Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (UFOP). Presidente do IBGE de 27 de abril de 2021 a 31 de dezembro de 2022. Diretor de Pesquisas do IBGE entre 21 de maio de 2019 e 26 de abril de 2021. Membro da Academia Mundial de Ciências (TWAS) a partir de 2024. Membro titular da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (ABC), na área de ciências sociais, a partir de 2018. Possui Diploma da Ordem Nacional do Mérito Científico, Classe de Comendador, Ciências Sociais e Humanas, conferido pelo Ministério de Ciências e Tecnologia. Lecionou a disciplina "World Food Economy" (ACE251) no Department of Agricultural & Consumer Economics na Universidade de Illinois em Urbana- Champaign, entre agosto de 2016 e dezembro de 2016. Professor Visitante Lemann na Universidade de Illinois em Urbana-Champaign entre agosto de 2015 e maio de 2016. Professor Tinker na Universidade do Texas (Austin), lecionou  "Evaluation of Social Policy in Latin America" no período de janeiro a maio de 2006. Professor Titular Aposentado do Departamento de Demografia (lecionou entre 1980 e 2015) e pesquisador do Cedeplar/UFMG. Ex-Bolsista de Produtividade em Pesquisa do CNPq - Nível 1A. PhD em Demografia pela Universidade da Califórnia/Berkeley (1982-1987) e pós-doutor pela Universidade do Texas-Austin (1995-1996). Foi Chefe do Departamento de Demografia da UFMG entre 2009 e 2015. Coordenou o Programa de Pós-Graduação em Demografia do Cedeplar/UFMG de 1996 a 2000.

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Publicado

2026-05-09

Como Citar

Rios-Neto, E. L. (2026). Demographic transition and post-transition population dynamics: a review of micro and macro economic models and interactions. Revista Brasileira De Estudos De População, 43. https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0323

Edição

v. 43 (2026)

Seção

Artigos originais

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Copyright (c) 2026 Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População

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