Spatial distribution of population and forest cover in extractive reserves in the Amazon biome, Brazil

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0294%20

Palavras-chave:

Distribuição Espacial, Áreas Protegidas, LUCC, Fragmentação Florestal, Regressão Linear, Valor de Shapley

Resumo

This study relates spatial measures of forest cover with measures of the spatial distribution of the population in the 31 Extractive Reserves (ERs) within the Amazon biome, Brazil, in 2010. We integrated layers of information on the ERs, forest cover, and spatial distribution of the population in a Geographic Information System. We produced 24 variables in three groups: population; external conditions (both as predictor variables); and land cover (predicted variables). We assessed the correlation between predictor variables and forest cover and fragmentation variables. Linear regression analyses based on cooperative game theory were conducted to evaluate the significance of the predictor variables in explaining the number of forest fragments and the percentage of forest cover in the models. We found that the size, concentration, dispersion, and geometry of the population contributed to a better understanding of deforestation and the landscape structure. However, forest fragmentation and forest cover extent are not necessarily defined by the same population aspects. The models suggest that forest cover change is primarily driven by population concentration within the ER, while forest fragmentation is strongly shaped by population dispersion. External conditions such as surrounding forests and protected areas also played a significant role. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating forest spatial distribution measures into Population and Environment research, going beyond the usual focus on forest extent. Additionally, it highlights the value of working with spatial demographic variables, extending beyond the conventional approach centered on population size.

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Biografia do Autor

Álvaro de Oliveira D'Antona, Faculdade de Ciências Aplicadas - FCA/Unicamp

Livre Docente da Faculdade de Ciências Aplicadas da Unicamp. Professor do Mestrado Interdisciplinar em Ciências Humanas e Sociais Aplicadas e do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Demografia (Unicamp). Colaborador do Núcleo de Estudos de População 'Elza Berquó' (NEPO-Unicamp).

Julia Corrêa Côrtes, Unicamp

Engenheira Agrônoma (ESALQ/USP), Doutora e Mestra em Demografia pelo Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas (IFCH/UNICAMP) com período de residência durante o doutorado no Center for Latin American Studies da University of Florida (LATAM/UF). Realizou pesquisa de pós-doutorado (PNPD/CAPES) pelo Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ambiente e Sociedade (IFCH/NEPAM/UNICAMP). Com experiência interdisciplinar na região da Amazônia brasileira desde 2010, pesquisa através do método misto os processos demográficos do desmatamento, degradação e dinâmica no uso da terra. As atuais atividades de pesquisa abordam a distribuição populacional e dinâmicas socioespaciais, mobilidade e gênero, urbanização e urbanidades no rural.

José Diego Gobbo Alves, Unicamp

Graduado em Geografia (Licenciatura e Bacharelado) pela Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP - Rio Claro), onde foi bolsista de projeto de extensão universitária (PROEX) e de iniciação científica (FAPESP). Mestre em Ciências Humanas e Sociais Aplicadas pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp), onde foi bolsista de mestrado FAPESP. Atualmente é aluno do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ambiente e Sociedade (Doutorado) na Universidade Estadual de Campinas, sendo bolsista CAPES. Tem atuado desde a graduação nas áreas de Urbanização e dispersão urbana; Distribuição espacial da população; Mobilidade urbana e regional; Planejamento urbano e ambiental; Geoprocessamento e Mudanças no uso e cobertura da terra. 

Leonardo Tomazeli Duarte, Unicamp

Leonardo Tomazeli Duarte graduou-se em Engenharia Elétrica pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp) (2004). É Mestre em Engenharia Elétrica pela Unicamp (2006), Doutor pelo Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble (Grenoble INP - Université Grenoble Alpes, França) (2009), na modalidade "Signal, Image, Parole, Télécom", e Livre-Docente pela Unicamp (2020). Realizou estágio pós-doutoral na Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier (França) (2023). É Professor Associado (MS 5.2) na Faculdade de Ciências Aplicadas (FCA) da Unicamp. Sua pesquisa se insere nas áreas de processamento de sinais, aprendizado de máquina e métodos de apoio à decisão multicritério, em tópicos que incluem aprendizado não supervisionado; separação de sinais e análise de variáveis latentes (ICA, SCA, NMF); compensação de distorções não lineares; agregação de dados via integral de Choquet; equidade e interpretabilidade em aprendizado de máquina. 

Guilherme Pelegrina, Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie - Escola de Engenharia

Guilherme Dean Pelegrinais an Assistant Professor at Mackenzie Presbyterian University. He completed postdoctoral research at the University of Campinas (UNICAMP) and at Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne (France). Through a co-tutelle agreement, he holds a PhD in Electrical Engineering from the School of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the University of Campinas and a PhD in Applied Mathematics from Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne (France). He also holds a Master’s and a Bachelor›s degree in Production Engineering from the School of Applied Sciences (UNICAMP).

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2025-06-06

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D’Antona, Álvaro de O., Corrêa Côrtes, J., Gobbo Alves, J. D., Tomazeli Duarte, L., & Pelegrina, G. (2025). Spatial distribution of population and forest cover in extractive reserves in the Amazon biome, Brazil. Revista Brasileira De Estudos De População, 42, 1–30. https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0294

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v. 42 (2025)

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Artigos originais

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